Weighted consensus across 8 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.
By source
Source
LENS
Draw
AUXERRE
Betfair Exchange sharp
59%
23%
18%
Smarkets sharp
58%
23%
19%
Pinnacle
59%
22%
19%
DraftKings
59%
22%
19%
FanDuel
61%
22%
18%
BetMGM
58%
23%
19%
Wtd. Average
59%
23%
18%
↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 8 books · live
Loading form…
Correct Score
2–1
16%
3–1
15%
1–1
13%
2–0
12%
3–0
12%
4–1
11%
2–2
11%
3–2
10%
Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.