Weighted consensus across 7 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.
By source
Source
SANTANDE
Draw
VILLARRE
Betfair Exchange sharp
29%
27%
45%
Smarkets sharp
28%
27%
46%
Pinnacle
32%
26%
43%
DraftKings
31%
27%
43%
FanDuel
28%
27%
45%
BetMGM
28%
27%
45%
Wtd. Average
29%
27%
45%
↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 7 books · live
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Correct Score
1–1
19%
1–2
16%
2–1
14%
2–2
14%
1–3
10%
2–3
9%
3–1
9%
3–2
9%
Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.