Weighted consensus across 6 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.
By source
Source
FREIBURG
Draw
BREMEN
Betfair Exchange sharp
42%
32%
25%
Smarkets sharp
47%
26%
27%
Pinnacle
47%
26%
27%
DraftKings
45%
27%
28%
FanDuel
46%
26%
28%
Wtd. Average
44%
29%
26%
↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 6 books · live
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Correct Score
1–1
19%
2–1
17%
2–0
13%
3–1
12%
2–2
11%
1–2
11%
1–0
9%
3–0
9%
Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.