Home Scotland
9% Win
Prob
VS
17% Draw
Away Brazil
74% Win
Prob
the tournament · Group C

Scotland vs Brazil

Mon 29 Jun 20265:00 PM SGT · KickoffSoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
Market Consensus
Scotland Win 9%
Draw 17%
Brazil Win 74%
Weighted consensus across 3 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.
By source
SourceSCOTLANDDrawBRAZIL
Betfair Exchange sharp9%16%74%
Pinnacle10%17%73%
Wtd. Average9%16%74%
↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 3 books · live
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Correct Score
1–2
16%
1–3
15%
0–2
13%
0–3
13%
1–1
12%
1–4
11%
0–4
10%
2–2
9%
Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.
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Sources: Betfair Exchange, Pinnacle and 3 others. Betting exchanges (near-zero margin) are weighted up to 25× more than retail books.

Probabilities derived from bookmaker and exchange odds, normalized to remove margin, then inverse-margin-weighted averaged. Exchanges reflect pure market opinion. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.