Weighted consensus across 10 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.
By source
Source
FC
Draw
TIMBERS
Betfair Exchange sharp
65%
19%
16%
Smarkets sharp
65%
19%
16%
Matchbook sharp
65%
19%
16%
Pinnacle
65%
19%
16%
DraftKings
63%
19%
18%
FanDuel
65%
19%
16%
Wtd. Average
65%
19%
16%
↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 10 books · live
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Correct Score
3–1
17%
2–1
15%
4–1
14%
3–2
12%
3–0
12%
2–2
11%
2–0
10%
1–1
10%
Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.