Who is the favourite in Spain vs Argentina?

Betting exchange markets make Spain the 41% favourite to win Spain vs Argentina. Spain win probability is 41%, Draw is 32%, Argentina win is 26%.

What are the odds for Spain vs Argentina?

Exchange-weighted market consensus: Spain 41% | Draw 32% | Argentina 26%. Data sourced from Betfair Exchange, Smarkets, Pinnacle and other bookmakers, with sharp books weighted up to 25x more than soft retail books.

Who will win the Final?

Crowd prediction · no login required

Confidence

Home Spain

41% Win
Prob

32% Draw

Away Argentina

26% Win
Prob

Final

Spain vs Argentina

◯Sun 19 Jul 2026◯3:00 AM SGT · Kickoff◯MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey

Market Consensus

Spain Win 41%

Draw 32%

Argentina Win 26%

Weighted consensus across 10 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.

By source

Source	SPAIN	Draw	ARGENTIN
Betfair Exchange sharp	42%	33%	26%
Smarkets sharp	41%	33%	26%
Matchbook sharp	42%	33%	26%
Pinnacle	41%	32%	26%
DraftKings	41%	32%	27%
FanDuel	41%	33%	26%
Wtd. Average	41%	33%	26%

↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 10 books · live

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Correct Score

1–1

21%

2–1

15%

2–0

13%

1–0

13%

0–0

13%

1–2

10%

3–1

2–2

Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.

What does the crowd think?