Who is the favourite in Spain vs Belgium?

Betting exchange markets make Spain the 59% favourite to win Spain vs Belgium. Spain win probability is 59%, Draw is 24%, Belgium win is 17%.

What are the odds for Spain vs Belgium?

Exchange-weighted market consensus: Spain 59% | Draw 24% | Belgium 17%. Data sourced from Betfair Exchange, Smarkets, Pinnacle and other bookmakers, with sharp books weighted up to 25x more than soft retail books.

Home Spain

59% Win
Prob

24% Draw

Away Belgium

17% Win
Prob

Quarterfinal

Spain vs Belgium

◯Fri 10 Jul 2026◯3:00 AM SGT · Kickoff◯SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California

Market Consensus

Spain Win 59%

Draw 24%

Belgium Win 17%

Weighted consensus across 9 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.

By source

Source	SPAIN	Draw	BELGIUM
Betfair Exchange sharp	59%	24%	17%
Smarkets sharp	59%	24%	17%
Matchbook sharp	59%	24%	17%
Pinnacle	58%	24%	18%
DraftKings	58%	24%	18%
FanDuel	59%	24%	17%
Wtd. Average	59%	24%	17%

↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 9 books · live

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Correct Score

2–1

16%

3–1

15%

1–1

14%

2–0

13%

3–0

12%

4–1

10%

2–2

10%

3–2

Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.

What does the crowd think?