Weighted consensus across 10 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.
By source
Source
SC
Draw
CITY
Betfair Exchange sharp
67%
19%
14%
Smarkets sharp
67%
19%
14%
Matchbook sharp
67%
19%
14%
Pinnacle
66%
19%
15%
DraftKings
65%
19%
16%
FanDuel
67%
18%
15%
Wtd. Average
66%
19%
15%
↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 10 books · live
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Correct Score
3–1
17%
4–1
15%
2–1
14%
3–2
12%
3–0
12%
4–2
10%
5–1
10%
4–0
10%
Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.