Weighted consensus across 7 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.
By source
Source
TOULOUSE
Draw
LYON
Betfair Exchange sharp
28%
26%
46%
Smarkets sharp
27%
25%
48%
Pinnacle
28%
25%
47%
DraftKings
28%
25%
47%
FanDuel
27%
25%
48%
BetMGM
28%
26%
46%
Wtd. Average
28%
26%
47%
↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 7 books · live
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Correct Score
1–1
18%
1–2
16%
2–2
14%
2–1
14%
1–3
11%
2–3
10%
3–2
9%
0–2
9%
Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.