Home Toulouse
28% Win
Prob
VS
26% Draw
Away Lyon
47% Win
Prob
Ligue 1

Toulouse vs Lyon

Sat 22 Aug 20262:45 AM SGT · Kickoff
Market Consensus
Toulouse Win 28%
Draw 26%
Lyon Win 47%
Weighted consensus across 7 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.
By source
SourceTOULOUSEDrawLYON
Betfair Exchange sharp28%26%46%
Smarkets sharp27%25%48%
Pinnacle28%25%47%
DraftKings28%25%47%
FanDuel27%25%48%
BetMGM28%26%46%
Wtd. Average28%26%47%
↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 7 books · live
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Correct Score
1–1
18%
1–2
16%
2–2
14%
2–1
14%
1–3
11%
2–3
10%
3–2
9%
0–2
9%
Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.
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