Weighted consensus across 8 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.
By source
Source
TROYES
Draw
FC
Betfair Exchange sharp
33%
29%
37%
Smarkets sharp
35%
26%
38%
Pinnacle
35%
28%
38%
DraftKings
35%
28%
38%
FanDuel
35%
27%
38%
BetMGM
35%
27%
38%
Wtd. Average
34%
28%
38%
↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 8 books · live
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Correct Score
1–1
19%
2–1
16%
1–2
14%
2–2
14%
3–1
10%
3–2
9%
2–0
9%
1–3
8%
Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.