Who is the favourite in USA vs Australia?

Betting exchange markets make USA the 60% favourite to win USA vs Australia. USA win probability is 60%, Draw is 22%, Australia win is 18%.

What are the odds for USA vs Australia?

Exchange-weighted market consensus: USA 60% | Draw 22% | Australia 18%. Data sourced from Betfair Exchange, Smarkets, Pinnacle and other bookmakers, with sharp books weighted up to 25x more than soft retail books.

Home USA

60% Win
Prob

22% Draw

Away Australia

18% Win
Prob

What The Market Says

USA vs Australia

◯SGT · Kickoff

Market Consensus

USA Win60%

Draw22%

Australia Win18%

Weighted consensus across 8 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.

By source

Source	USA	Draw	AUSTRALI
Betfair Exchange sharp	60%	22%	18%
Smarkets sharp	60%	22%	17%
Matchbook sharp	60%	22%	17%
Pinnacle	60%	22%	18%
DraftKings	59%	22%	18%
FanDuel	60%	22%	18%
Wtd. Average	60%	22%	18%

↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 8 books

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Correct Score

Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.