Who is the favourite in USA vs Belgium?

Betting exchange markets make Belgium the 37% favourite to win USA vs Belgium. USA win probability is 34%, Draw is 29%, Belgium win is 37%.

What are the odds for USA vs Belgium?

Exchange-weighted market consensus: USA 34% | Draw 29% | Belgium 37%. Data sourced from Betfair Exchange, Smarkets, Pinnacle and other bookmakers, with sharp books weighted up to 25x more than soft retail books.

Home USA

34% Win
Prob

29% Draw

Away Belgium

37% Win
Prob

Round of 16

USA vs Belgium

◯Tue 07 Jul 2026◯8:00 AM SGT · Kickoff◯Lumen Field, Seattle, Washington

Market Consensus

USA Win 34%

Draw 29%

Belgium Win 37%

Weighted consensus across 10 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.

By source

Source	USA	Draw	BELGIUM
Betfair Exchange sharp	34%	29%	37%
Smarkets sharp	34%	29%	37%
Matchbook sharp	34%	29%	37%
Pinnacle	35%	28%	37%
DraftKings	36%	28%	36%
FanDuel	34%	29%	37%
Wtd. Average	34%	29%	37%

↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 10 books · live

Loading form…

Correct Score

1–1

21%

2–1

16%

1–2

14%

2–2

13%

3–1

10%

2–0

10%

0–0

3–2

Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.

What does the crowd think?