Weighted consensus across 3 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.
By source
Source
VALENCIA
Draw
BETIS
Pinnacle
35%
29%
35%
DraftKings
35%
29%
35%
Wtd. Average
35%
29%
35%
↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 3 books · live
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Correct Score
1–1
21%
2–1
16%
1–2
13%
2–2
12%
2–0
10%
3–1
10%
0–0
9%
1–0
8%
Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.