Weighted consensus across 7 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.
By source
Source
TOWNS
Draw
FC
Betfair Exchange sharp
45%
26%
29%
Pinnacle
46%
26%
28%
DraftKings
44%
27%
29%
FanDuel
45%
26%
29%
William Hill
44%
28%
29%
Wtd. Average
45%
26%
29%
↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 7 books · live
Loading form…
Correct Score
1–1
17%
2–1
17%
3–1
13%
2–2
13%
1–2
11%
2–0
11%
3–2
10%
3–0
8%
Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.