Weighted consensus across 8 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.
By source
Source
YUKUN
Draw
FC
Betfair Exchange sharp
39%
23%
38%
Matchbook sharp
39%
23%
37%
Pinnacle
39%
24%
37%
DraftKings
38%
24%
38%
FanDuel
38%
23%
38%
William Hill
37%
25%
37%
Wtd. Average
39%
23%
38%
↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 8 books · live
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Correct Score
2–2
15%
2–1
14%
3–2
13%
1–1
13%
3–1
12%
1–2
12%
2–3
11%
3–3
10%
Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.